In the Fed’s discussions, these periods were characterised as periods of “moderate growth” or a “soft patch”. These additional cyclical troughs centred on 1985, 1989, 1996, 1998, 20 were never formally declared as recessions by the NBER. economy was in recession for just 58 out of 492 months (less than 12% of the time), on the NBER definition.īut there have been twice as many distinct cyclical troughs in the purchasing managers’ manufacturing index published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) over the same 41-year period. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee formally declared only six recessions between 1980 and the end of 2020. Growth in business activity tends to accelerate and decelerate outright declines in the level of activity are relatively rare. Federal Reserve has characterised economic activity with phrases including "rapid", "vigorous", "robust", "solid", "moderate", "slowed considerably" and "severe disruption". Explaining its interest rate decisions, the U.S.
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